Population migration and birthrate loss

The world of work is a complex construct, with demographics - such as population changes, labour market factors, and available opportunities - influencing individual outcomes (Inkson et al., 2015). National population change can be effected by immigration and emigration: and currently in Aotearoa, there have been fewer migrant arrivals than departures. This has resulted in a net loss of 47,100 people in the year to December 2024 (Dann, 2025). 

In the previous year there was a net gain of 128,300 (Dann, 2025; Statistics New Zealand, 2025b). Net population loss is at volumes not seen since 1979 (Trlin et al., 2010, p. 50), apparently “due to a combination of factors", including "economic and labour market conditions between New Zealand and the rest of the world, and immigration policy in New Zealand and other countries” (Statistics New Zealand, 2025b). With fewer net New Zealanders, there may be an increase in labour market opportunities. Which would be good. 

However, I suspect there is a larger problem. Our economic models have tended to rely on growth. We have tended to offset our declining birth rate - or fertility rate - which is now fallen to 1.56 in Aotearoa (Statistics New Zealand, 2025), with migration. For replacement, we need to be at 2.1 births/woman (Spoonley, 2024). I have been noticing the global falling birth rates around the world for some time; for example, South Korea is at 0.78 (NBC News, 2025); the UK is at 1.44 (Office for National Statistics, 2024). While there is evidence that once we are sure our children will grow to adulthood, we tend to only have two children per family (Rosling et al., 2018), there are now factors other than survival at play. Since the Covid-19 pandemic we are increasingly developing a view that children are too costly; that childcare is too expensive; that the career impacts for the principal parent/carer are too significant; that young women are carrying a double-burden of household duties AND work; and that there are too many of us on a warming planet already (McKenzie, 2024). 

And if other nations follow the trend in having fewer children, we are likely to be less able to import our population growth. Where could we import our future New Zealanders from if everyone is in a net population loss situation?

If that is the case, what other future strategies might work for us to sustain this governmental drive for growth? Or is this drive sustainable at all?

Sam

References:

Dann. L. (2025, February 17). Migration data: New stats reveal age of Kiwis leaving the country. New Zealand Herald. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/losing-our-young-people-new-stats-reveal-age-of-kiwis-leaving-the-country/BLO7SH6E2NHADEOQ4WFXM37W4Y/

Inkson, K., Dries, N., & Arnold, J. (2015). Understanding Careers (2nd ed.). SAGE Publications Ltd.

McKenzie, J. (2024, February 28). Why South Korean women aren't having babies. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139

NBC News. (2025, January 22). Birth rate in South Korea, the world's lowest, set to rise for the first time in nine years. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/birth-rate-south-korea-worlds-lowest-set-rise-first-time-nine-years-rcna188697

Office for National Statistics. (2024, October 28). Births in England and Wales: 2023. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2023

Rosling, H., with Rosling, O. & Rosling Ronnlund, A. (2018). Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think. Hodder & Stoughton Ltd.

Spoonley, P. (2024, May 27). NZ is changing faster than the census can keep up – the 4 big trends to watch. Radio New Zealand. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/517937/nz-is-changing-faster-than-the-census-can-keep-up-the-4-big-trends-to-watch

Statistics New Zealand. (2025a, February 18). Births and deaths: Year ended December 2024 (including abridged period life table). https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-december-2024-including-abridged-period-life-table/

Statistics New Zealand (2025b). Net migration falls in 2024. https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/net-migration-falls-in-2024/

Trlin, A., Spoonley, P., & Bedford, R. (Eds.). (2010). New Zealand and International Migration: A Digest and Bibliography (Number 5). Massey University Printery.