Diverting rangatahi from NEET

A worrying 13.2% of our rangatahi in the 15-24 age group are unemployed (Statistics New Zealand, 2025b). These young people are classified as "NEET", or not in education, employment or training (Godfrey et al., 2002). With our overall unemployment rate at only 5.4% (Statistics New Zealand, 2025c), it is likely to be our young people who will be out-competed for entry level jobs with older and more experienced workers. Thus our vulnerable rangatahi who have already missed out education, training and experience, then have the knock-on effects of having their work opportunities reduced. Worse, those who spend more time as NEETs become more likely to experience ‘scarring’, or long-term detrimental effects (Samoilenko & Carter, 2015), including reduced job prospects, job instability, long term unemployment or underemployment (Dinku, 2024), and life-long lower wages than non-NEETs (Samoilenko & Carter, 2015).

That 13.2% of our nation’s young people may experience NEET scarring is concerning (Statistics New Zealand, 2025b). But it does get worse: disabled NEET unemployment is 45.9% compared to 11.3% of non-disabled NEETs, with both NEETs living with and without a disability being more affected by recent 2024-2025 market downturns than other groups (Statistics New Zealand, 2025a; Whaikaha, 2025). The increased impacts may be due to NEETs having higher part-time, casual and entry-level employment rates; these roles tend to be the first to go as employer wage budgets tighten (Dinku, 2024).

While explicitly sharing NEET statistics, and explaining the impacts of NEET with at risk young people will help, it is more likely that early career intervention for our rangatahi will help them to find their 'why' - assisting them to find reasons to stay in school (Maree, 2018). This is particularly important for those in families already experiencing generational unemployment (Dinku, 2024).

Our young people going into their first paid roles have to learn how to do the job, AND the organisational culture; AND about the world of work. When we think about it that way, it is understandable why employers may find young workers a challenge: there is a perception that this group will a lot of additional coaching (van der Baan et al., 2022). And that is where Gateway and similar programmes in Aotearoa can provide employers with some security (read more here).

Many years ago I stumbled across some research - which I have not found since, darn it! - which suggested that our career ideas seemed to branch at '7th grade'. This is late intermediate age, or age 11 and 12 here in New Zealand - which also indicates that this was probably a piece of US research that I had found. The findings suggested that there were two groups of rangatahi: those were embedded in reality - such as law, medicine, finance; or those who were wildly imaginative - such as seeking fame, superheroicness or high office. Those young people who were more 'real' could map a path, seeming to take the steps they needed in order to be prepared for their next transition. Those with the flights of fancy were often unable to map a path to their next steps, completely miss any action decision-making for the roles which interested them, and so were significantly more likely to be NEETs.

The second most commonly reported career choice for boys aged between 7 and 13 was to become a Social Media/You Tuber/Influencer (TEC, 2019). This technological factor affecting the context in which boys view careers has likely led to an increase in young NEET men. While our rangatahi may seek digital media influencer celebrity, few make it. There may be an aspiration gap.

But if we had some type of age 8 or 9 plus sorting hat in primary school, where we (a) identified those with the flights of fancy early (i.e. those most at risk), and (b) had career conversations with them all the way through to the end of high school, we could help them connect with and learn the skills required for - say - diplomacy so they were able to segue into some form of high office; or focus on performance to at least play a superhero; or on presence and determination to be more likely to become a celebrity. We could help those rangatahi to map to their desires, and NOT to rain on their parade.

This may be echoing Gottfredson (2005; more here) with rangatahi refining career interests and values from around age 10 (allowing for identity, skills, cultural and social shaping). It seems possible that by secondary school our rangatahi may appear to form two groups: we have group A who have already significantly narrowed their focus and where career development is closely linked to wellbeing, agency, and future orientation; and group B who may have experienced trauma or negative self-beliefs, where the future is murky, unclear and something to avoid (Gottfredson, 2005).

Providing age-appropriate career development across our entire school system would help. Across years 9 and 10 we could look at exploration and broadening horizons. From years 11 to 12, we could work on identity-building and pathway development. And from year 13 we can then provide that targeted transition support (Gottfredson, 2005).

We might be able to embed more creativity in our national culture. But that would mean that we see young people ALL THE WAY through school, having regular career conversations with them, to help them map to their interests, values and desires.

Sam

References:

Dinku, Y. (2024). Future Labour Market Prospects of Youth Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET). New Zealand Journal of Employment Relations, 48(2), 1-14. https://www.nzlii.org/nz/journals/NZJlEmpR/2024/13.pdf

Godfrey, C., Hutton, S., Bradshaw, J., Coles, B., Craig, G. and Johnson, J. (2002). Estimating the Cost of Being ‘Not in Education, Employment or Training’ at Age 16-18 [No. 346, Research Report]. Social Policy Research Unit, University of York/University of Hull. https://www.york.ac.uk/inst/spru/pubs/pdf/RR346.pdf

Gottfredson, L. S. (2005). Chapter 4: Applying Gottfredson’s Theory of Circumscription and Compromise in Career Guidance and Counseling. In S. D. Brown, R. W. Lent (Eds.), Career development and counseling: Putting theory and research to work (pp. 71-100). John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Maree, J. G. (2018). Chapter 11: Using life design counseling for career construction to facilitate sustainable employability and decent work in a developing country context. In V. Cohen-Scali, J. Pouyaud, M. Podgórny, V. Drabik-Podgórna, G. Aisenson, J. L. Bernaud... J. Guichard (Eds.), Interventions in career design and education: Transformation for sustainable development and decent work (pp. 195-214). Springer International Publishing.

Samoilenko, A., & Carter, K. (2015). Economic outcomes of youth not in education, employment or training (NEET) (Working Paper No. 15/01). New Zealand Treasury. www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2015-03/twp15-01.pdf

Statistics New Zealand. (2025a). Disability statistics: 2023. https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/disability-statistics-2023/

Statistics New Zealand. (2025b). Labour market statistics: September 2025 quarter. https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-september-2025-quarter/

Statistics New Zealand. (2025c, November 5). Unemployment rate at 5.3 percent in the September 2025 quarter. https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/unemployment-rate-at-5-3-percent-in-the-september-2025-quarter/

TEC. (2019). Drawing the future: Exploring the career aspirations of New Zealand children. ‌Tertiary Education Commission. https://www.tec.govt.nz/assets/Publications-and-others/TEC-Drawing-the-Future-Report-v3.pdf

van der Baan, N., Gast, I., Gijselaers, W., & Beausaert, S. (2022). Coaching to prepare students for their school-to-work transition: conceptualizing core coaching competences. Education+ Training, 64(3), 398-415. https://doi.org/10.1108/ET-11-2020-0341

Whaikaha. (2025, August 13). Labour market statistics for disabled people - June 2025 quarter. Ministry of Disabled People. https://www.whaikaha.govt.nz/news/news/labour-market-statistics-for-disabled-people-june-2025-quarter

 * NotebookLM was used to create the infographics accompanying this post