Friday, 30 August 2013

Facebook - uncool with teens

Apparently Facebook is going to die, because teenagers are shifting to media channels - like Tumblr and Snapchat - which don't have their parents as members. This is to avoid the cringe-worthy "OMG, look what my Mother posted!!", and being sprung drinking at parties through being tagged in friends' photo albums.

I am not so sure. If teens are decreasingly in the FB space now, and follow what is trending, they may join FB later as a graduation to a more 'adult' network, as part of leaving their childhood behind. We tend to follow different leaders as we mature, both as stage demarkations, and because we are more developed, more layered as people, and different things matter to us... Super's life stages kick in (1980).

The article may well be right, that teens moving away may herald the early signs of FB market erosion. However, FB's revenues are driven by advertising, and I would bet my bottom dollar that FB ads will target those who have the most cash to spend. I suspect that rich seam of revenue to mine is not the teen market, but their graduated older cousins who are earning and have few responsibilties as yet. To some degree, even the teen's parents have more cash, and make decisions over cash, than teens themselves.

It will be interesting to see how this prediction pans out. I am sure that FB, as it becomes establishment, will be seen as 'ordinary', 'boring' and 'old hat'. There will indeed be something new, but I am unconvinced that it will be Tumblr or Snapchat, or that it will be solely driven by teenagers.

I suspect that the next big thing will arise from a technology ap paradigm shift.  I can't wait!

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