Accurate Performance Predictors?

As a member of the HRINZ LinkedIn group, I was reading a member post the other day that was really fascinating. Posted by Anna Sage of Sage Advice in Wellington, it detailed the predictive validities of a variety of hiring tools:

1. Assessment centres - potential (0.53)
2. Ability tests - job performance and training (0.50)
3. Structured interviews (0.44)
4. Bio-data (0.37)
5. Assessment centres - performance (0.36)
6. Personality tests (0.33)
7. Unstructured interviews (0.33)
8. References (0.17)
9. Self-assessments (0.15)

All pretty poor, really, at predicting success - performance - on the job! It amazes me that we still use references, if they are less useful than 1 in 5 of being accurate. In fact, why on earth we use anything from Bio-data on down is pretty moot. CVs don't even get a rating.

But what really surprised me was the follow up list that Anna posted; her "what is most popular" hiring assessment tools with employers (in decreasing order of popularity, based on some research Anna did between 1991 and 2006):

1. References - 93% (predictive validity 0.17)
2. Structured panel interviews - 88% (predictive validity 0.44)
3. Structured one-to-one interviews - 85% (predictive validity 0.44)
4. Competency-based interviews - 85%
5. Ability tests - 75% (predictive validity 0.50)
6. CVs - 74%
7. Personality questionnaires - 60% (predictive validity 0.33)
8. Assessment centres - 48% (predictive validity 0.53 or 0.36)
9. Online selection tests - 25% (predictive validity 0.15)
10. Bio-data - 7% (predictive validity 0.37)

If Anna's data is accurate, then why do employers and recruitment agencies still request the same old materials and hire as they do? It beggars belief.

• Reference: Sage, Anna (July 2013). LinkedIn HRINZ Group: When psychometric testing makes the national press, it’s rarely for positive reasons. Retrieved 1 August 2013 from http://www.linkedin.com/groupItem?view=&gid=3017817&type=member&item=257073330&qid=5a50d1e1-39b9-4023-a76c-d70980a5ef6f&trk=group_items_see_more-0-b-ttl

Sam