The Gartner Hype Cycle

Have you heard of the Gartner Hype Cycle? This model "describes the typical progression of the infiltration of new technologies into society (ColdFusion, 2025, 13:15). While I recognised the image when it was shown in the ColdFusion video (2025), I realised I had not been exposed to the model previously. I had assumed it was somehow related to the product life cycle. But no. Product/service visibility is mapped against maturity to estimate the amount of hype being generated from novelty and hope; as opposed to proven applications and returns (Dedehayir & Steinert, 2016; Prinsloo & Van Deventer, 2017). The features of the Gartner hype curve are the technology trigger, leading to a peak of "inflated expectations", which is followed by a trough of disillusionment; then, once we have got all the hype out of our system, we have a state of enlightenment, followed by a plateau of productivity (ColdFusion, 2025; Dedehayir & Steinert, 2016; Prinsloo & Van Deventer, 2017).

So why don't we hear what the model is for from the founder's own business (Gartner, 2022)?

With Gartner having at least 95 different hype cycle models, depending on what each product/service is, and what sector it is in, this provides excellent intel for all kinds of organisations. Each cycle depends on a range of issues, mapped below (Dedehayir & Steinert, 2016, p. 3):

From this cycle, we can see that there are many factors affecting the Innovation Trigger growth phase; as well as number of issues affecting the drop from the inflated peak to disillusionment. Then the steady restoration of fortunes to - basically - product maturity... as I think this is where the product visibility actually intersects with the product life cycle. 

This is very interesting!

Sam

References:

ColdFusion. (2025, October 1). Replacing Humans with AI is Going Horribly Wrong [video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/QX1Xwzm9yHY

Dedehayir, O., & Steinert, M. (2016). The hype cycle model: A review and future directions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 108, 28-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.005

Gartner. (2022, March 25). Gartner Hype Cycles, Explained [video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/jB1RDz9jaj0

Gartner. (2026). Gartner Hype Cycle. https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle

Prinsloo, T., & Van Deventer, J. P. (2017, September). Using the Gartner Hype Cycle to evaluate the adoption of emerging technology trends in higher education–2013 to 2016. In international symposium on emerging technologies for education (pp. 49-57). Springer International Publishing.